Despite the optimistic forecasts of crypto-experts, a miracle didn't happen: the bulls did not seize the initiative, and throughout the outgoing week, key digital assets gradually “slid” in price charts. It ended on Friday night, when BTC collapsed by 11.5%, and ETH fell almost immediately after it, flying past the psychological barrier at $3,000. Now the index of greed and fear of the crypto market is at a record level of “absolute fear”, almost all coins from the TOP-10 on CoinMarketCap are significantly oversold. As a result, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is $1.84 trillion. But only two months ago it was on the rise and that figure was almost $3 trillion. But, as usual, experts are optimistic about the fate of crypto-assets and recommend waiting out important regression phases, and then boldly entering positions. How long to wait and what exactly? — We will talk about this further.
According to cryptoanalyst Nicholas Merten, the cryptocurrency market is in a protracted consolidation, and a sufficiently large number of open long-term positions with large leverage only add fuel to the fire. A significant bull run is possible only when most of the cascading margin sales are closed. As for Bitcoin, it has now reached its lowest price position since August 2 last year. Experts say that we can safely expect high volatility from the asset in the coming days. Crypto analyst Outumuro notes that a similar trend was observed in 2018, when the inflationary pressure of the US Federal Reserve and the dollar supply decreased. This correlation has been increasing till now. But if the money supply declines in the future, the forecast for the asset will be more bearish-like, cause investors turn their attention away from risky assets again.
However, on the chart we see a sharp drop in the price of BTC, which is quite typical for the start of a bull market. The fact is that most of these patterns led to trend reversals, but after touching the bottom. Where is the bottom? A record $121.68 million in Bitcoin has been liquidated in the past 24 hours, but there are still no signs of seller exhaustion. On the other hand, there is still a lot of open interest in the asset on the market, which means that the continuation of the correction will not come as a surprise. Analysts believe that BTC has the potential to fall even below $35,000 per coin, but as soon as this Rubicon is crossed, which may happen as early as next week, the activity of buyers will peak, which will serve as a powerful incentive to reverse the Bitcoin trend.
Over the past 24 hours, ETH has lost 9% of its value and collapsed below one of the most important psychological positions — $3,000. It’s currently trading at $2,881 and has a capitalization of $343 billion. However, if the bears continue their sprint and break through the strong support at $2,800, an uncontrolled price collapse could begin. However, crypto analyst InvestAnswers draws the attention of its followers to the fact that ETH is critically oversold. The fact is that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the asset is at the same level as at the end of May last year, when it began to rise. And then last June, just before it reversed and eventually hit all-time-highs.
Thus, the expert comes to the conclusion that Ethereum is giving signals indicating a price increase in the near future. The asset is extremely oversold, coinciding with the previous price bottom, which almost exactly matched the 200-day moving average. Now the price is below this level, so we should expect a rebound in the near future.
The flagship hard fork also experienced bearish momentum sharply, as did ETH, which is uncharacteristic for this asset. The price of BCH fell below the $380 support and the 55 simple moving average (in the 4-hour range). But worse, the BCH/USD chart has broken below a key bullish trendline with support around $365. The pair even fell below the $350 level. The low is formed around $338. Now the asset is trading at $343. The next major resistance is near the $350 level. And if there is a confident break above $370 and $380, the price could rise to $400.
On the other hand, a break below the $320 support levels could exacerbate the decline. The next major support is near the $300 level, below which the bears could push the asset to $280.