«Red Market», BTC, ETH and TON are Testing the Current Ranges: Trading Week Results and Experience Forecasts
The main news of the outgoing trading week is the fall in the price of the market flagship, BTC, below $20,000. At the same time, at the time of writing this analysis, the bottom of the current collapse has not yet been found, despite the fact that bitcoin is already trading at the highest price in the last two months. Analysts attribute the current decline in the global crypto market to two main factors. On the one hand, investor confidence has been undermined by fears about the upcoming, next increase in interest rates, which was hinted at by the US Federal Reserve. In addition, the repression of regulators against Kraken and suspicions about Coinbase have shaken the nerves of even experienced players. On the other hand, the bankruptcy of the largest crypto-oriented bank Silvergate is actually dragging the industry into a large-scale debt hole. By the way, the problems of the bank, whose partners were Galaxy Digital, Coinbase and a number of other major players, began just because of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, which also “actively participated” in the life of the company.
Naturally, BTC pulled the entire market with it, so altcoins are also going through hard times. However, experts believe that the current market situation is not capable of delivering a long-term blow to the crypto. Last year, such fundamental factors would have been considered ordinary and insignificant at all. And in order to soberly assess this situation, let's talk about assets in detail.
BTC Is Losing $20,000. For how long?
Experts' forecasts regarding the price of the market flagship diverge. For example, crypto analyst and trader Jason Pizzino predicts a short-term drop in BTC but is optimistic about the long-term outlook. In his opinion, the price of bitcoin may fall by another 15% compared to current levels. That is, hypothetically, the asset is able to drop to the range of $18,000 - $19,000. But trader DonAlt claims that from a technical point of view, the levels of $19,000 and $20,000 continue to be supports even in the face of a powerful collapse. At the same time, the current resistance expects bulls around $20,400, while the main resistances remain at $22,000 and $23,500.
At the time of writing, the price of BTC continues to fall and is $19,921. The asset fell below the EMA50 on March 3rd and has not yet shown signs of systemic growth. We also saw a wave of short liquidations today, so the RSI points to a record oversold since the beginning of the year. At the same time, no divergence is visible on the MACD, that is, it is too early to expect initiative from the bulls. It is worth considering that large-scale changes at the end of the trading week almost always characterize the beginning of the next week, so you should not expect key levels to be overcome and a sharp bullish momentum at the weekend.
ETH Dives Below $1,400 “Thanks” to Sellers on Coinbase
The price of ETH also fell to two-month lows. At the same time, the main selling pressure was recorded on the Coinbase crypto exchange. Ethereum premium index, which measures the gap between the dollar-denominated asset price on Coinbase and Binance, has fallen to its lowest level since January 18, according to data from South Korean blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The catalyst for the mass sell-off appears to have been the New York Attorney General's decision to use ETH as a defense in a lawsuit against cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin. Thus, investors' fears touched on the possibility of identifying ethereum as a security, which potentially threatens to expand repression against crypto-silver by the SEC.
Today, the price of ETH has fallen below $1,392, but buyers are still fighting for the asset. At the same time, the intensity of the sell-off is intensifying, and the RSI on the four-hour chart shows a record oversold since November 2022, when the dramatic bankruptcy story of FTX began. At the time of writing, the asset is “leaning” on strong support around $1,404. If the bears manage to break it, the price of ETH could drop to $1,350.
TON Key Range
Since the end of January, TON has been consolidating in the range of $2.2 - $2.6. Today, its price retested the lower part of this range, after which a recovery could begin. But this did not happen, since global market trends have a key impact on the asset. On the daily chart, the price deviation from the supply zone at $2.6 led to a correction in TON. At the time of publication, the coin re-tested the demand zone, after which it continued to move south.
For now, the bulls are missing out on a breakout opportunity with massive buying in the $2.3 zone. However, the ideal buying opportunity in this regard is the retesting of the $2.16-$2.23 demand zone. A break of the lower limit of the demand zone at $2.1183 will deprive the bulls of any strength. This scenario would also open the door for a massive sell-off at $1.9518, which could return the bears full ownership of the coin.