Just yesterday, a sharp uptrend was outlined in the charts of most cryptocurrencies, which in almost every case repeated the infamous Head and Shoulders pattern. It’s a clear bearish signal and therefore, unfortunately, has spurred several volume selling cycles that have only added fuel to the fire ignited by the short sellers. As a result of a major market crash, Bitcoin and altcoins lost from 6% to almost 12% of their value in a matter of hours. In particular, BTC stopped the fall at $35,871 (according to CoinMarketCap) last night, after which there were no clear signs of recovery. Thus, we can talk not about situational movement, but about purposeful and well-coordinated work of bears. By the way, the last time crypto-gold fell below $36,000 was a little less than 3 months ago, on February 24, when the troops of the russian dictator launched an offensive against Ukraine. It’s still difficult to say what exactly the current collapse is connected with, but it’s obvious that due to the ongoing war to this day, the world economy is going through a period of deepening crisis, the end of which cannot yet be foreseen. Therefore, today we will take a slightly larger look at the movement of crypto-assets and take into account some external factors influencing the crypto.
Over the past 24 hours, crypto gold has dipped 8% from its current peak of $39,820. This caused a massive outflow of investments from the crypto market, which is currently about 7.3%, as the total capitalization is now hovering between $1.67-1.68 trillion. BTC is trading at $36,431 with no signs of recovery. According to the results of Glassnode's weekly analysis, the bear market for crypto gold could continue due to the global economic crisis. The analysis points to a worrying global trend driven by inflation and monetary tightening. With these variables, the profitability of the BTC market has plummeted from around 95% to around 70%.
There has been an increase in the number of short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) in the market, but they seem to only make things worse. According to Glassnode, STH have accumulated a significant amount of BTC over the past three months, so they are the most vulnerable to market panic and are the first to “drain” their accumulations as soon as cascading crypto sales begin. The current STH-MVRV oscillator is -0.75. This indicates that STH will have a hard times in the near future. The underlying value of their holdings is currently $46,910, which implies an unrealized loss of -17.9% of the average coin owned by the average STH.
During the week, Ethereum struggled to overcome the resistance at $2950, then peaked at $2969, and then lost ground sharply due to the global market downtrend. Now the digital asset is trading at $2,742, having lost 6.4% of its value in a day. Despite a brief pivotal spike below the $2720 support, ETH appears to be heading towards the low of the current move around the $2678 support. The recovery wave is holding above the $2,720 level for now, while the price remains above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, ranging from a $2,678 low to a $2,969 high.
The talk now is that if ETH fails to overcome the resistance at $2,760, the downward move will continue. Initial support is currently around $2,720 USD. The next major support is already much lower, near the $2680 level. But a break below this level can lead to an unpredictable decline.
LUNA is also under bearish influence, so in the last 24 hours the price of the coin has fallen by about 7%, and the value has hovered just above $80. During the day, one of the most powerful supports for the asset at $85 was lost, the trading volume increased by 16.78%, and after large-scale sales, its market capitalization decreased by 7.32%.
And some technical stuff. LUNA's MACD line remains below the signal line, which confirms the continuation of the downtrend in the near future. At the same time, the RSI indicator is below 43, which means that the active fight between bulls and bears continues. But the main price movement of the coin is aimed at testing the lower zone of the Bollinger bands, so the bearish collapse of the coin is just around the corner.